Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (70%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on October 30?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 30¢ · $380 held · ends Oct 30

Yes30¢No70¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$380.08

Combined PnL

-$18.58

Smart Money Entry

35.4¢ → 30¢

-15% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 30%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 70%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes30%

No70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$230.55

Total Shares854

Combined PnL-$33.19

No2 traders

Total Value$149.53

Total Shares213

Combined PnL+$14.61

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IstarothCTR	Yesavg 39.5¢	$235.37	$160.92	-$74.45	23% 290-994 (1284)
HE HellYeahTrader	Noavg 61¢	$102	$117.05	+$15.05	55% 327-264 (591)
fildoroCTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$28.37	$69.63	+$41.26	62% 1435-880 (2315)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 70.5¢	$32.93	$32.49	-$0.44	60% 1676-1133 (2809)

IstarothCTR

Yes

Invested

$235.37

Value

$160.92

PnL

-$74.45

Record

23%

290-994 (1284)

HellYeahTrader

Invested

$102

Value

$117.05

PnL

+$15.05

Record

55%

327-264 (591)

fildoroCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.37

Value

$69.63

PnL

+$41.26

Record

62%

1435-880 (2315)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$32.93

Value

$32.49

PnL

-$0.44

Record

60%

1676-1133 (2809)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 30%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 70%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance32.1%

30.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$211.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

311.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.