Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on October 29?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 95¢ · $251 held · ends Oct 29

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$250.58

Combined PnL

$7.85

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$174.4

Total Shares1,026

Combined PnL+$13.3

No3 traders

Total Value$76.17

Total Shares88

Combined PnL-$5.45

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 16.2¢	$90.88	$95.58	+$4.7	51% 600-573 (1173)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 15.1¢	$70.22	$78.82	+$8.6	60% 1636-1103 (2739)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 85.3¢	$74.17	$49.53	-$4.51	57% 13257-10098 (23355)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 84¢	$20.2	$20	-$0.2	24% 285-894 (1179)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 92.2¢	$7.38	$6.64	-$0.74	53% 6381-5587 (11968)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$90.88

Value

$95.58

PnL

+$4.7

Record

51%

600-573 (1173)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$70.22

Value

$78.82

PnL

+$8.6

Record

60%

1636-1103 (2739)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$74.17

Value

$49.53

PnL

-$4.51

Record

57%

13257-10098 (23355)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$20.2

Value

$20

PnL

-$0.2

Record

24%

285-894 (1179)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$7.38

Value

$6.64

PnL

-$0.74

Record

53%

6381-5587 (11968)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.4%

95.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.