Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (66%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 15°C on October 28?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 34¢ · $255 held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 100%
$255.06
$3.03
33.9¢ → 34¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 34%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 66%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR | Yesavg 34.4¢ | $203.22 | $194.77 | -$8.45 | 46% 556-647 (1203) |
 fildoroCTR<$100 | Yesavg 32¢ | $45.23 | $56.77 | +$11.53 | 62% 1429-868 (2297) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 36¢ | $3.96 | $3.52 | -$0.06 | 61% 1527-966 (2493) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
34.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.