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Yes
balthazar<$100NoYesYesYesYesNo
IstarothCTR<$100Yes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C on October 27?
Resolved No. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
8
Yes 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
-$29.07
Smart Money Signal
Yes
6 of 8 top traders (75%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
Loading chart data…
Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes6 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares264
Combined PnL-$29.07
No2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
Yes — 75%No — 25%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 12.2¢ | $4.03 | — | -$29.07 | 61% 1529-967 (2496) |
balthazar<$100 | Noavg 81.1¢ | — | — | +$0 | 61% 20522-12983 (33505) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 19.5¢ | — | — | +$0 | 50% 1623-1615 (3238) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.1¢ | — | — | +$0 | 53% 6235-5472 (11707) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100 | Yesavg 18¢ | — | — | +$0 | 46% 556-647 (1203) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.2¢ | — | — | +$0 | 57% 12909-9833 (22742) |
HE HellYeahTrader<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | — | — | +$0 | 55% 217-181 (398) |
IstarothCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15.6¢ | — | — | +$0 | 32% 273-593 (866) |
24
241532532432CTR<$100Invested
$4.03
Value
—
PnL
-$29.07
Record
61%
1529-967 (2496)
balthazar<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
20522-12983 (33505)
HE
hello.67CTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
1623-1615 (3238)
CB
Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
6235-5472 (11707)
0X
0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
556-647 (1203)
GH
ghorrockCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
12909-9833 (22742)
HE
HellYeahTrader<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
217-181 (398)
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
32%
273-593 (866)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xf9f06936...f23efa
Slug
highest-temperature-in-beijing-on-october-27-2026-17c