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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 15°C or higher on November 9?

Resolved No. 88% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

8

Yes 100%

Total Value

$0

Combined PnL

-$6.02

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 8 top traders (88%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares68

Combined PnL-$6.02

No1 trader

Total Value$0

Total Shares0

Combined PnL+$0

Yes — 88%No — 12%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 8.8¢	$3.92	—	-$3.92	50% 9346-9412 (18758)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 6.1¢	$1.42	—	-$2.11	22% 657-2370 (3027)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yes	—	—	+$0	30% 35523-84044 (119567)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.4¢	—	—	+$0	43% 18729-24498 (43227)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	—	—	+$0	47% 47657-54243 (101900)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yes	—	—	+$0	35% 1183-2186 (3369)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	—	—	+$0	46% 6200-7414 (13614)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 10.6¢	—	—	+$0	30% 2958-6851 (9809)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$3.92

Value

—

PnL

-$3.92

Record

50%

9346-9412 (18758)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Invested

$1.42

Value

—

PnL

-$2.11

Record

22%

657-2370 (3027)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

35523-84044 (119567)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

18729-24498 (43227)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

47657-54243 (101900)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

35%

1183-2186 (3369)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

6200-7414 (13614)

123987456CTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

2958-6851 (9809)

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 8 top traders (88%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x456ad599...a83d9b

Slug

highest-temperature-in-beijing-on-november-9-2026-15corhigher

Traders in this Market

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493

Yes — $0

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179

Yes — $0

balthazar

Yes — $0

Lucerys

Yes — $0

qwen300.fund

Yes — $0

anothercoin

Yes — $0

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702

No — $0

123987456

Yes — $0

Trade on Polymarket