Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 8°C on November 7?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $15 held · ended Nov 7
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$14.69
-$1.24
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 78.1¢ | $65.99 | $8.77 | +$10.11 | 58% 21687-15792 (37479) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $4.7 | $5.09 | +$0.05 | 54% 10730-9241 (19971) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.6¢ | $35.4 | $0.68 | -$12.4 | 38% 887-1421 (2308) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.6¢ | $43.88 | $0.12 | +$1.21 | 19% 2967-12556 (15523) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $0.22 | $0.02 | -$0.2 | 28% 3035-7859 (10894) |
Invested
$65.99
Value
$8.77
PnL
+$10.11
Record
58%
21687-15792 (37479)
Invested
$4.7
Value
$5.09
PnL
+$0.05
Record
54%
10730-9241 (19971)
Invested
$35.4
Value
$0.68
PnL
-$12.4
Record
38%
887-1421 (2308)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$43.88
Value
$0.12
PnL
+$1.21
Record
19%
2967-12556 (15523)
Invested
$0.22
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$0.2
Record
28%
3035-7859 (10894)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.