Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 7°C on November 7?
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (29%) · Yes at 100¢ · $778 held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 29%
$777.92
$321.28
62.1¢ → 100¢
+61% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-54 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
29% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD | Yesavg 99.9¢ | $412.6 | $412.79 | +$0.19 | 97% 457-14 (471) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0 | Yesavg 19.2¢ | $215.9 | $363.47 | +$545.54 | 39% 885-1409 (2294) |
HE HellYeahTraderCTR | Noavg 68.3¢ | $203.2 | $0.89 | -$197.83 | 56% 777-601 (1378) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Noavg 6.8¢ | $17.9 | $0.62 | +$3.19 | 19% 2965-12539 (15504) |
 IstarothCTR<$100 | Noavg 72.1¢ | $9.26 | $0.06 | -$9.2 | 13% 583-3823 (4406) |
PO PoligarchCTR<$100 | Noavg 74.4¢ | $17.63 | $0.05 | -$12.03 | 54% 10711-9227 (19938) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 58.5¢ | $27.49 | $0.04 | -$8.58 | 58% 21660-15754 (37414) |
Invested
$412.6
Value
$412.79
PnL
+$0.19
Record
97%
457-14 (471)
Invested
$215.9
Value
$363.47
PnL
+$545.54
Record
39%
885-1409 (2294)
Invested
$203.2
Value
$0.89
PnL
-$197.83
Record
56%
777-601 (1378)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$17.9
Value
$0.62
PnL
+$3.19
Record
19%
2965-12539 (15504)
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
$9.26
Value
$0.06
PnL
-$9.2
Record
13%
583-3823 (4406)
Invested
$17.63
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$12.03
Record
54%
10711-9227 (19938)
Invested
$27.49
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$8.58
Record
58%
21660-15754 (37414)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.