Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C on November 6?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.3¢ · $75 held · ends Nov 6
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$75.19
-$55.43
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.3¢ | $14.1 | $71.14 | -$55.62 | 38% 858-1404 (2262) |
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.5¢ | $3.16 | $3.45 | +$0.29 | 42% 2356-3223 (5579) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8¢ | $0.4 | $0.58 | +$0.17 | 17% 4501-22036 (26537) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $6.27 | $0.02 | -$0.01 | 44% 2309-2928 (5237) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.6¢ | $0.28 | $0 | -$0.27 | 72% 13903-5480 (19383) |
Invested
$14.1
Value
$71.14
PnL
-$55.62
Record
38%
858-1404 (2262)
Invested
$3.16
Value
$3.45
PnL
+$0.29
Record
42%
2356-3223 (5579)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$0.4
Value
$0.58
PnL
+$0.17
Record
17%
4501-22036 (26537)
Invested
$6.27
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$0.01
Record
44%
2309-2928 (5237)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$0.28
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.27
Record
72%
13903-5480 (19383)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.