Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 12°C on November 6?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 98¢ · $76 held · ends Nov 6

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$75.97

Combined PnL

-$46.58

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$67.1

Total Shares68

Combined PnL+$3.26

Yes2 traders

Total Value$8.86

Total Shares722

Combined PnL-$49.83

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 89.4¢	$31.95	$40.89	+$2.69	58% 21295-15456 (36751)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 95.9¢	$54.42	$26.21	+$0.56	42% 2356-3223 (5579)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.3¢	$14.1	$6.8	-$49.43	38% 858-1404 (2262)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$2.46	$2.06	-$0.4	17% 4501-22036 (26537)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$31.95

Value

$40.89

PnL

+$2.69

Record

58%

21295-15456 (36751)

123987456<$100

Invested

$54.42

Value

$26.21

PnL

+$0.56

Record

42%

2356-3223 (5579)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.1

Value

$6.8

PnL

-$49.43

Record

38%

858-1404 (2262)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.46

Value

$2.06

PnL

-$0.4

Record

17%

4501-22036 (26537)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.0%

98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.