Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on November 5?

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 100¢ · $158 held · ends Nov 5

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 83%

Total Value

$157.7

Combined PnL

-$7.22

Smart Money Entry

93.5¢ → 99.7¢

+7% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$130.09

Total Shares136

Combined PnL-$3.52

Yes2 traders

Total Value$27.61

Total Shares258

Combined PnL-$3.7

No — 83%Yes — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 87.7¢	$60.05	$30.74	+$0.67	54% 10268-8884 (19152)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 12.3¢	$12.18	$26.5	-$3.85	41% 2307-3348 (5655)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 97.1¢	$23.31	$20.18	-$3.13	44% 2227-2867 (5094)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 97.7¢	$17.79	$18.16	+$0.36	41% 1204-1759 (2963)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 93.7¢	$15.94	$16.96	+$1.02	41% 1144-1648 (2792)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 93.5¢	$90.87	$11.89	-$3.32	58% 20201-14846 (35047)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 86.5¢	$8.71	$10.03	+$1.32	42% 1214-1706 (2920)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 97.2¢	$8.51	$8.72	+$0.21	47% 1706-1890 (3596)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 98¢	$6.88	$5.9	-$0.98	31% 2661-5937 (8598)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$5.32	$4.52	-$0.79	58% 12017-8564 (20581)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 88¢	$39.02	$2.98	+$1.13	20% 2762-10914 (13676)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 8.6¢	$11.06	$1.11	+$0.15	27% 6988-19089 (26077)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$60.05

Value

$30.74

PnL

+$0.67

Record

54%

10268-8884 (19152)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.18

Value

$26.5

PnL

-$3.85

Record

41%

2307-3348 (5655)

123987456<$100

Invested

$23.31

Value

$20.18

PnL

-$3.13

Record

44%

2227-2867 (5094)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$17.79

Value

$18.16

PnL

+$0.36

Record

41%

1204-1759 (2963)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$15.94

Value

$16.96

PnL

+$1.02

Record

41%

1144-1648 (2792)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$90.87

Value

$11.89

PnL

-$3.32

Record

58%

20201-14846 (35047)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$8.71

Value

$10.03

PnL

+$1.32

Record

42%

1214-1706 (2920)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$8.51

Value

$8.72

PnL

+$0.21

Record

47%

1706-1890 (3596)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$6.88

Value

$5.9

PnL

-$0.98

Record

31%

2661-5937 (8598)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$5.32

Value

$4.52

PnL

-$0.79

Record

58%

12017-8564 (20581)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$39.02

Value

$2.98

PnL

+$1.13

Record

20%

2762-10914 (13676)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.06

Value

$1.11

PnL

+$0.15

Record

27%

6988-19089 (26077)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.