Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 15°C on November 4?

16 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold No (94%) · No at 100¢ · $499 held · ends Nov 4

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 94%

Total Value

$498.54

Combined PnL

$91.64

Smart Money Entry

86.7¢ → 100¢

+15% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

16 of 17 top traders (94%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No16 traders

Total Value$498.27

Total Shares499

Combined PnL+$75.46

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.27

Total Shares133

Combined PnL+$16.18

No — 94%Yes — 6%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Mature

28h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

94% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (16 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 100% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 89.5¢	$175.43	$134	-$41.43	58% 2476-1805 (4281)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$53.53	$53.76	+$0.23	31% 2304-5170 (7474)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 77.9¢	$78.19	$49.66	+$10.46	58% 19232-14159 (33391)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Noavg 75.2¢	$435.57	$41.08	+$78.64	42% 795-1109 (1904)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 91.9¢	$37.79	$40.95	+$3.16	40% 2112-3153 (5265)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 93¢	$33.46	$35.34	+$1.87	55% 4369-3567 (7936)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 74.3¢	$26.01	$29.91	+$7.62	78% 12157-3379 (15536)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 92.9¢	$27.04	$29.02	+$1.98	41% 1149-1645 (2794)
HA haveagoodday<$100	No	$26.1	$26.1	+$0	51% 3565-3449 (7014)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 77.8¢	$16.34	$19.58	+$3.24	53% 9883-8605 (18488)
HE hello.67<$100	Noavg 75.9¢	$13.4	$17.59	+$4.19	48% 2149-2310 (4459)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$6.19	$6.24	+$0.05	60% 11636-7873 (19509)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 49¢	$5.26	$5.27	+$5.4	39% 1012-1603 (2615)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 94.3¢	$4.88	$5.02	+$0.14	47% 2092-2375 (4467)
AH aHjCz<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$2.54	$2.56	+$0.03	39% 5457-8502 (13959)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 90.4¢	$2.31	$2.18	-$0.13	39% 1023-1615 (2638)
IstarothCTR<$100	Yesavg 17.6¢	$32.88	$0.27	+$16.18	15% 447-2555 (3002)

241532532432

Invested

$175.43

Value

$134

PnL

-$41.43

Record

58%

2476-1805 (4281)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$53.53

Value

$53.76

PnL

+$0.23

Record

31%

2304-5170 (7474)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$78.19

Value

$49.66

PnL

+$10.46

Record

58%

19232-14159 (33391)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Invested

$435.57

Value

$41.08

PnL

+$78.64

Record

42%

795-1109 (1904)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$37.79

Value

$40.95

PnL

+$3.16

Record

40%

2112-3153 (5265)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$33.46

Value

$35.34

PnL

+$1.87

Record

55%

4369-3567 (7936)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$26.01

Value

$29.91

PnL

+$7.62

Record

78%

12157-3379 (15536)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$27.04

Value

$29.02

PnL

+$1.98

Record

41%

1149-1645 (2794)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$26.1

Value

$26.1

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

3565-3449 (7014)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$16.34

Value

$19.58

PnL

+$3.24

Record

53%

9883-8605 (18488)

hello.67<$100

Invested

$13.4

Value

$17.59

PnL

+$4.19

Record

48%

2149-2310 (4459)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$6.19

Value

$6.24

PnL

+$0.05

Record

60%

11636-7873 (19509)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$5.26

Value

$5.27

PnL

+$5.4

Record

39%

1012-1603 (2615)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$4.88

Value

$5.02

PnL

+$0.14

Record

47%

2092-2375 (4467)

aHjCz<$100

Invested

$2.54

Value

$2.56

PnL

+$0.03

Record

39%

5457-8502 (13959)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$2.31

Value

$2.18

PnL

-$0.13

Record

39%

1023-1615 (2638)

IstarothCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.88

Value

$0.27

PnL

+$16.18

Record

15%

447-2555 (3002)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

16 of 17 top traders (94%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Mature

28h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

94% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (16 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 100% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.