Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 9°C on November 16?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 80¢ · $95 held · ends Nov 16

Yes20¢No80¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

Total Value

$94.87

Combined PnL

$28.78

Research grade

NeutralNo at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes20%

No80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$50.1

Total Shares257

Combined PnL+$27.03

No7 traders

Total Value$44.76

Total Shares55

Combined PnL+$1.75

Yes — 30%No — 70%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$34.36	$47.9	+$13.54	42% 803-1100 (1903)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 81.1¢	$14.18	$14.32	+$0.14	71% 950-388 (1338)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 77.2¢	$7.72	$8.06	+$0.33	31% 1122-2474 (3596)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 82.2¢	$8.22	$8.06	-$0.17	28% 1103-2780 (3883)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 76.6¢	$7.12	$7.49	+$0.37	53% 7473-6603 (14076)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 87.4¢	$19.11	$4.25	+$1.16	28% 3298-8406 (11704)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$13.01	$1.89	+$11.13	54% 1125-974 (2099)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 81.6¢	$1.34	$1.3	-$0.04	51% 945-892 (1837)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 81.6¢	$1.33	$1.29	-$0.04	47% 887-1007 (1894)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$19.78	$0.32	+$2.36	35% 3905-7251 (11156)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.36

Value

$47.9

PnL

+$13.54

Record

42%

803-1100 (1903)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$14.18

Value

$14.32

PnL

+$0.14

Record

71%

950-388 (1338)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$7.72

Value

$8.06

PnL

+$0.33

Record

31%

1122-2474 (3596)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$8.22

Value

$8.06

PnL

-$0.17

Record

28%

1103-2780 (3883)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$7.12

Value

$7.49

PnL

+$0.37

Record

53%

7473-6603 (14076)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$19.11

Value

$4.25

PnL

+$1.16

Record

28%

3298-8406 (11704)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.01

Value

$1.89

PnL

+$11.13

Record

54%

1125-974 (2099)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$1.34

Value

$1.3

PnL

-$0.04

Record

51%

945-892 (1837)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$1.33

Value

$1.29

PnL

-$0.04

Record

47%

887-1007 (1894)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.78

Value

$0.32

PnL

+$2.36

Record

35%

3905-7251 (11156)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 80%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.0%

80.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$22.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

122.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.