Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 8°C on November 16?

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 68¢ · $265 held · ends Nov 16

Yes32¢No68¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$265.37

Combined PnL

$95.94

Smart Money Entry

43.9¢ → 68.2¢

+55% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 9 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes32%

No68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$191.84

Total Shares275

Combined PnL+$95.94

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+14 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 36.4¢	$190.18	$129.25	+$75.17	42% 808-1111 (1919)
PO PoligarchARB<$100	Yesavg 59.3¢	$69.41	$72.95	+$3.54	71% 954-392 (1346)
└ No leg	Noavg 39.6¢	$30.03	$52.69	+$22.66
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 59.3¢	$39.38	$20.26	-$19.12
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 52.5¢	$16.44	$22.5	+$6.06	53% 7499-6626 (14125)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 72¢	$21.16	$20.43	-$0.72	52% 959-896 (1855)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 52.1¢	$5.21	$7.19	+$1.98	38% 323-524 (847)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 71.9¢	$5.21	$5.03	-$0.17	49% 868-890 (1758)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 49.7¢	$2.55	$3.57	+$1.02	58% 872-632 (1504)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0<$100	Noavg 46.4¢	$12.39	$1.6	+$11.46	54% 1126-975 (2101)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 34.9¢	$0.57	$1.14	+$0.57	50% 932-930 (1862)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 34.4¢	$0.56	$1.13	+$0.57	52% 923-846 (1769)

241532532432

Invested

$190.18

Value

$129.25

PnL

+$75.17

Record

42%

808-1111 (1919)

PoligarchARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$69.41

Value

$72.95

PnL

+$3.54

Record

71%

954-392 (1346)

Both legs:

No$30.0339.6¢+$22.66

Yes$39.3859.3¢-$19.12

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$16.44

Value

$22.5

PnL

+$6.06

Record

53%

7499-6626 (14125)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$21.16

Value

$20.43

PnL

-$0.72

Record

52%

959-896 (1855)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$5.21

Value

$7.19

PnL

+$1.98

Record

38%

323-524 (847)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$5.21

Value

$5.03

PnL

-$0.17

Record

49%

868-890 (1758)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$2.55

Value

$3.57

PnL

+$1.02

Record

58%

872-632 (1504)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0<$100

Invested

$12.39

Value

$1.6

PnL

+$11.46

Record

54%

1126-975 (2101)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$0.57

Value

$1.14

PnL

+$0.57

Record

50%

932-930 (1862)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$0.56

Value

$1.13

PnL

+$0.57

Record

52%

923-846 (1769)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 9 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+14 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.2%

68.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$42.42

Max Loss

-$100.00

142.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.