Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 7°C on November 16?

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 51¢ · $158 held · ends Nov 16

Yes49¢No51¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 83%

Total Value

$158.19

Combined PnL

-$26.45

Smart Money Entry

60.3¢ → 51.1¢

-15% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes49%

No51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$133

Total Shares244

Combined PnL-$4.89

Yes2 traders

Total Value$25.19

Total Shares217

Combined PnL-$21.55

No — 83%Yes — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+16 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 49.3¢	$43.32	$47.52	+$4.19	65% 4379-2399 (6778)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 64.1¢	$78.51	$21.92	+$5.83	42% 808-1111 (1919)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$59.32	$20.21	-$16.86	54% 1126-975 (2101)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 80.8¢	$22.95	$18.95	-$4.01	71% 954-392 (1346)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 75.6¢	$22.15	$13.97	-$8.18	53% 7499-6626 (14125)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 50.4¢	$9.07	$9.72	+$0.65	50% 932-930 (1862)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 74.2¢	$32.76	$8.55	-$4.56	53% 2316-2081 (4397)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 22.5¢	$9.68	$4.99	-$4.69	53% 2353-2120 (4473)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 47.8¢	$3.97	$4.49	+$0.52	47% 898-1015 (1913)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 47.8¢	$2.88	$3.25	+$0.38	58% 872-632 (1504)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 47.8¢	$2.4	$2.72	+$0.31	60% 888-604 (1492)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 54.9¢	$1.95	$1.92	-$0.03	52% 959-896 (1855)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$43.32

Value

$47.52

PnL

+$4.19

Record

65%

4379-2399 (6778)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$78.51

Value

$21.92

PnL

+$5.83

Record

42%

808-1111 (1919)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$59.32

Value

$20.21

PnL

-$16.86

Record

54%

1126-975 (2101)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$22.95

Value

$18.95

PnL

-$4.01

Record

71%

954-392 (1346)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$22.15

Value

$13.97

PnL

-$8.18

Record

53%

7499-6626 (14125)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$9.07

Value

$9.72

PnL

+$0.65

Record

50%

932-930 (1862)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$32.76

Value

$8.55

PnL

-$4.56

Record

53%

2316-2081 (4397)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.68

Value

$4.99

PnL

-$4.69

Record

53%

2353-2120 (4473)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$3.97

Value

$4.49

PnL

+$0.52

Record

47%

898-1015 (1913)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$2.88

Value

$3.25

PnL

+$0.38

Record

58%

872-632 (1504)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.72

PnL

+$0.31

Record

60%

888-604 (1492)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$1.95

Value

$1.92

PnL

-$0.03

Record

52%

959-896 (1855)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 51%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+16 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.3%

51.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$87.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

187.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.