Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 6°C on November 16?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 100¢ · $68 held · ends Nov 16

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$67.95

Combined PnL

$5.24

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$67.92

Total Shares68

Combined PnL+$13.74

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0.03

Total Shares55

Combined PnL-$8.5

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 96.1¢	$24.87	$25.84	+$0.97	53% 2390-2132 (4522)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 97¢	$14.78	$15.22	+$0.45	53% 7602-6693 (14295)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 98¢	$9.8	$9.99	+$0.19	36% 378-681 (1059)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$5.91	$5.95	+$0.05	52% 994-930 (1924)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5.82	$5.82	+$0	60% 938-634 (1572)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0<$100	Noavg 45.8¢	$12.05	$1.82	+$12.03	54% 1126-978 (2104)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 98.2¢	$1.61	$1.64	+$0.03	56% 888-693 (1581)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 98.2¢	$1.6	$1.63	+$0.03	52% 969-886 (1855)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$30.92	$0.02	-$5.14	35% 3950-7384 (11334)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$23.29	$0.01	-$3.37	28% 3336-8584 (11920)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$24.87

Value

$25.84

PnL

+$0.97

Record

53%

2390-2132 (4522)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$14.78

Value

$15.22

PnL

+$0.45

Record

53%

7602-6693 (14295)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$9.8

Value

$9.99

PnL

+$0.19

Record

36%

378-681 (1059)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$5.91

Value

$5.95

PnL

+$0.05

Record

52%

994-930 (1924)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$5.82

Value

$5.82

PnL

+$0

Record

60%

938-634 (1572)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0<$100

Invested

$12.05

Value

$1.82

PnL

+$12.03

Record

54%

1126-978 (2104)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$1.61

Value

$1.64

PnL

+$0.03

Record

56%

888-693 (1581)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$1.6

Value

$1.63

PnL

+$0.03

Record

52%

969-886 (1855)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.92

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$5.14

Record

35%

3950-7384 (11334)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.29

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$3.37

Record

28%

3336-8584 (11920)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.