Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 5°C on November 16?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 100¢ · $68 held · ends Nov 16

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$67.97

Combined PnL

-$7.19

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$67.83

Total Shares68

Combined PnL+$0.12

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0.14

Total Shares55

Combined PnL-$7.31

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$29.2	$29.26	+$0.06	53% 7499-6626 (14125)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$9.97	$9.99	+$0.02	39% 334-532 (866)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$9.97	$9.99	+$0.02	36% 339-612 (951)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$5.95	$5.96	+$0.01	49% 868-890 (1758)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5.82	$5.83	+$0	52% 923-846 (1769)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$3.53	$3.54	+$0.01	47% 898-1015 (1913)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$1.64	$1.64	+$0	47% 1255-1396 (2651)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$1.63	$1.63	+$0	58% 872-632 (1504)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$30.95	$0.08	-$5.14	35% 3914-7277 (11191)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.23	$0.06	-$2.16	54% 1126-975 (2101)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$29.2

Value

$29.26

PnL

+$0.06

Record

53%

7499-6626 (14125)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$9.97

Value

$9.99

PnL

+$0.02

Record

39%

334-532 (866)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$9.97

Value

$9.99

PnL

+$0.02

Record

36%

339-612 (951)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$5.95

Value

$5.96

PnL

+$0.01

Record

49%

868-890 (1758)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$5.82

Value

$5.83

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

923-846 (1769)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$3.53

Value

$3.54

PnL

+$0.01

Record

47%

898-1015 (1913)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$1.64

Value

$1.64

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

1255-1396 (2651)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$1.63

Value

$1.63

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

872-632 (1504)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.95

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$5.14

Record

35%

3914-7277 (11191)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.23

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$2.16

Record

54%

1126-975 (2101)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.