Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 10°C on November 16?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 97¢ · $225 held · ends Nov 16

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 89%

Total Value

$224.55

Combined PnL

$0.44

Smart Money Entry

96.7¢ → 96.7¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$223.79

Total Shares230

Combined PnL+$1.91

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.76

Total Shares24

Combined PnL-$1.47

No — 89%Yes — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 96¢	$120	$122.25	+$2.25	42% 808-1111 (1919)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 97.2¢	$28.48	$28.65	+$0.17	53% 7499-6626 (14125)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 97.5¢	$28.67	$28.39	-$0.29	47% 1255-1396 (2651)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 97.7¢	$12.14	$11.99	-$0.15	50% 932-930 (1862)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 97¢	$9.7	$9.78	+$0.08	28% 1108-2781 (3889)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 98¢	$9.8	$9.78	-$0.02	36% 339-612 (951)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 97.6¢	$7.41	$7.33	-$0.08	60% 888-604 (1492)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 97.4¢	$5.68	$5.63	-$0.05	47% 898-1015 (1913)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.23	$0.76	-$1.47	54% 1126-975 (2101)

241532532432

Invested

$120

Value

$122.25

PnL

+$2.25

Record

42%

808-1111 (1919)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$28.48

Value

$28.65

PnL

+$0.17

Record

53%

7499-6626 (14125)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$28.67

Value

$28.39

PnL

-$0.29

Record

47%

1255-1396 (2651)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$12.14

Value

$11.99

PnL

-$0.15

Record

50%

932-930 (1862)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$9.7

Value

$9.78

PnL

+$0.08

Record

28%

1108-2781 (3889)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$9.8

Value

$9.78

PnL

-$0.02

Record

36%

339-612 (951)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$7.41

Value

$7.33

PnL

-$0.08

Record

60%

888-604 (1492)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$5.68

Value

$5.63

PnL

-$0.05

Record

47%

898-1015 (1913)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.23

Value

$0.76

PnL

-$1.47

Record

54%

1126-975 (2101)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.8%

96.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.