Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 8°C on November 15?

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 100¢ · $428 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 33%

Total Value

$427.56

Combined PnL

-$35.41

Smart Money Entry

99.9¢ → 100¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$427.39

Total Shares428

Combined PnL+$0.21

Yes6 traders

Total Value$0.17

Total Shares342

Combined PnL-$35.63

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD	Noavg 99.9¢	$411.74	$411.95	+$0.21	99% 1517-23 (1540)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$9.99	$10	+$0.01	36% 286-506 (792)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5.44	$5.45	+$0	28% 1077-2772 (3849)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$14.36	$0.08	-$14.28	57% 812-615 (1427)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$6.15	$0.03	-$6.11	24% 762-2435 (3197)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.93	$0.03	-$4.9	28% 3267-8303 (11570)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3.83	$0.02	-$3.81	43% 5182-7005 (12187)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$41.81	$0.01	-$6.07	35% 3865-7146 (11011)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.45	$0	-$0.45	36% 1600-2790 (4390)

1DVSBSTD

Invested

$411.74

Value

$411.95

PnL

+$0.21

Record

99%

1517-23 (1540)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$9.99

Value

$10

PnL

+$0.01

Record

36%

286-506 (792)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$5.44

Value

$5.45

PnL

+$0

Record

28%

1077-2772 (3849)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.36

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$14.28

Record

57%

812-615 (1427)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.15

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$6.11

Record

24%

762-2435 (3197)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.93

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$4.9

Record

28%

3267-8303 (11570)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.83

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$3.81

Record

43%

5182-7005 (12187)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$41.81

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$6.07

Record

35%

3865-7146 (11011)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.45

Value

PnL

-$0.45

Record

36%

1600-2790 (4390)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.