Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C or higher on November 15?

11 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (85%) · No at 100¢ · $204 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 85%

Total Value

$204.22

Combined PnL

-$8.97

Smart Money Entry

99.7¢ → 99.9¢

+0% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$204.18

Total Shares205

Combined PnL-$2.96

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0.04

Total Shares10

Combined PnL-$6.02

No — 85%Yes — 15%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$60.26	$60.23	-$0.03	47% 852-950 (1802)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$67.54	$43.93	-$2.1	24% 752-2355 (3107)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$21.75	$21.73	-$0.02	51% 901-849 (1750)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$20.2	$20.45	+$0.25	53% 2122-1900 (4022)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$29.97	$19.95	-$0.93	28% 3261-8293 (11554)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$9.99	$9.96	-$0.03	42% 1670-2304 (3974)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$6.79	$6.74	-$0.04	49% 877-897 (1774)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$6.03	$6.01	-$0.01	47% 1197-1366 (2563)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$5.97	$5.96	-$0.01	59% 827-567 (1394)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$5.11	$5.09	-$0.02	52% 865-790 (1655)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$4.14	$4.13	-$0.02	51% 818-797 (1615)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$63.66	$0.03	-$6.01	35% 3858-7089 (10947)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.02	$0.01	-$0	57% 800-608 (1408)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$60.26

Value

$60.23

PnL

-$0.03

Record

47%

852-950 (1802)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$67.54

Value

$43.93

PnL

-$2.1

Record

24%

752-2355 (3107)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$21.75

Value

$21.73

PnL

-$0.02

Record

51%

901-849 (1750)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$20.2

Value

$20.45

PnL

+$0.25

Record

53%

2122-1900 (4022)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$29.97

Value

$19.95

PnL

-$0.93

Record

28%

3261-8293 (11554)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$9.99

Value

$9.96

PnL

-$0.03

Record

42%

1670-2304 (3974)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$6.79

Value

$6.74

PnL

-$0.04

Record

49%

877-897 (1774)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$6.03

Value

$6.01

PnL

-$0.01

Record

47%

1197-1366 (2563)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$5.97

Value

$5.96

PnL

-$0.01

Record

59%

827-567 (1394)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$5.11

Value

$5.09

PnL

-$0.02

Record

52%

865-790 (1655)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$4.14

Value

$4.13

PnL

-$0.02

Record

51%

818-797 (1615)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$63.66

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$6.01

Record

35%

3858-7089 (10947)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0

Record

57%

800-608 (1408)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.