Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C on November 15?

11 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 96¢ · $276 held · ends Nov 15

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$276.2

Combined PnL

-$2.72

Smart Money Entry

94.4¢ → 95.8¢

+1% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 11 top traders (100%)10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$276.2

Total Shares293

Combined PnL-$2.72

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 93¢	$120.95	$124.54	+$3.59	42% 754-1062 (1816)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 96¢	$84.2	$69.77	-$2.47	53% 2078-1852 (3930)
SU suntori<$100	Noavg 90.9¢	$24.5	$22.61	-$1.89	46% 2978-3516 (6494)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$19.86	$19.29	-$0.57	53% 7331-6407 (13738)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 97.5¢	$8.75	$8.52	-$0.24	47% 1197-1366 (2563)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 97.1¢	$6.55	$6.44	-$0.11	49% 877-897 (1774)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 96.9¢	$6.42	$6.01	-$0.42	51% 818-797 (1615)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 89.1¢	$5.82	$5.93	+$0.1	71% 917-377 (1294)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 98.3¢	$5.84	$5.73	-$0.11	59% 827-567 (1394)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 92.7¢	$11.45	$4.94	-$0.54	24% 752-2353 (3105)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$2.5	$2.42	-$0.08	98% 1504-23 (1527)

241532532432

Invested

$120.95

Value

$124.54

PnL

+$3.59

Record

42%

754-1062 (1816)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$84.2

Value

$69.77

PnL

-$2.47

Record

53%

2078-1852 (3930)

suntori<$100

Invested

$24.5

Value

$22.61

PnL

-$1.89

Record

46%

2978-3516 (6494)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.86

Value

$19.29

PnL

-$0.57

Record

53%

7331-6407 (13738)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$8.75

Value

$8.52

PnL

-$0.24

Record

47%

1197-1366 (2563)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$6.55

Value

$6.44

PnL

-$0.11

Record

49%

877-897 (1774)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$6.42

Value

$6.01

PnL

-$0.42

Record

51%

818-797 (1615)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$5.82

Value

$5.93

PnL

+$0.1

Record

71%

917-377 (1294)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$5.84

Value

$5.73

PnL

-$0.11

Record

59%

827-567 (1394)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$11.45

Value

$4.94

PnL

-$0.54

Record

24%

752-2353 (3105)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.42

PnL

-$0.08

Record

98%

1504-23 (1527)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 11 top traders (100%)10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.0%

95.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.