Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 15°C on November 15?

13 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (93%) · No at 71¢ · $160 held · ends Nov 15

Yes29¢No71¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 93%

Total Value

$159.82

Combined PnL

-$2.1

Smart Money Entry

83.9¢ → 70.9¢

-16% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 14 top traders (93%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes29%

No71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No13 traders

Total Value$139.69

Total Shares164

Combined PnL-$11.28

Yes1 trader

Total Value$20.13

Total Shares71

Combined PnL+$9.18

No — 93%Yes — 7%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 76¢	$42.33	$40.76	-$1.58	71% 917-377 (1294)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 95¢	$38	$34.96	-$3.04	53% 7310-6373 (13683)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 24.5¢	$20.84	$20.13	+$9.18	42% 754-1062 (1816)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 84.2¢	$32.53	$9.97	-$3.14	53% 2063-1842 (3905)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 97¢	$9.7	$8.74	-$0.96	34% 303-588 (891)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 84¢	$8.4	$8.23	-$0.18	33% 80-164 (244)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 77.1¢	$7.71	$7.61	-$0.1	28% 3256-8289 (11545)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 82.4¢	$5.83	$6.18	+$0.35	24% 752-2351 (3103)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 97¢	$5.29	$4.76	-$0.52	34% 329-644 (973)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 77¢	$4.57	$4.52	-$0.05	58% 818-587 (1405)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 73¢	$3.79	$4	+$0.21	47% 849-947 (1796)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 77¢	$3.97	$3.93	-$0.05	57% 796-604 (1400)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 72.8¢	$49.05	$3.84	-$2.41	35% 3858-7087 (10945)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 70.6¢	$2.02	$2.2	+$0.18	51% 814-794 (1608)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$42.33

Value

$40.76

PnL

-$1.58

Record

71%

917-377 (1294)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$38

Value

$34.96

PnL

-$3.04

Record

53%

7310-6373 (13683)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.84

Value

$20.13

PnL

+$9.18

Record

42%

754-1062 (1816)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$32.53

Value

$9.97

PnL

-$3.14

Record

53%

2063-1842 (3905)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$9.7

Value

$8.74

PnL

-$0.96

Record

34%

303-588 (891)

123987456<$100

Invested

$8.4

Value

$8.23

PnL

-$0.18

Record

33%

80-164 (244)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$7.71

Value

$7.61

PnL

-$0.1

Record

28%

3256-8289 (11545)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$5.83

Value

$6.18

PnL

+$0.35

Record

24%

752-2351 (3103)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$5.29

Value

$4.76

PnL

-$0.52

Record

34%

329-644 (973)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$4.57

Value

$4.52

PnL

-$0.05

Record

58%

818-587 (1405)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$3.79

Value

PnL

+$0.21

Record

47%

849-947 (1796)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$3.97

Value

$3.93

PnL

-$0.05

Record

57%

796-604 (1400)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$49.05

Value

$3.84

PnL

-$2.41

Record

35%

3858-7087 (10945)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$2.02

Value

$2.2

PnL

+$0.18

Record

51%

814-794 (1608)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 14 top traders (93%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.9%

70.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.25

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.