Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 14°C on November 15?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 56¢ · $465 held · ends Nov 15

Yes56¢No44¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 56%

Total Value

$465.38

Combined PnL

$123.01

Smart Money Entry

33.5¢ → 56¢

+67% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes56%

No44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$440.09

Total Shares770

Combined PnL+$133.56

No4 traders

Total Value$25.28

Total Shares57

Combined PnL-$10.56

Yes — 56%No — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Yesavg 32¢	$101.21	$164.41	+$63.21	54% 1232-1038 (2270)
BI Bilberry	Yesavg 27.1¢	$78.26	$150.43	+$72.17	40% 46-69 (115)
24 241532532432	Yesavg 49.1¢	$151.5	$61.49	-$0.36	42% 754-1062 (1816)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 48.3¢	$48.4	$48.23	-$0.17	71% 917-377 (1294)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 68.5¢	$27.4	$17.6	-$9.8	53% 7310-6373 (13683)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 41.8¢	$16.81	$15.53	-$1.28	53% 2063-1842 (3905)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 46¢	$2.73	$2.7	-$0.03	47% 849-947 (1796)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 51¢	$3.06	$2.67	-$0.39	51% 898-846 (1744)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 51¢	$2.65	$2.31	-$0.34	58% 818-587 (1405)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Yes

Invested

$101.21

Value

$164.41

PnL

+$63.21

Record

54%

1232-1038 (2270)

Bilberry

Yes

Invested

$78.26

Value

$150.43

PnL

+$72.17

Record

40%

46-69 (115)

241532532432

Yes

Invested

$151.5

Value

$61.49

PnL

-$0.36

Record

42%

754-1062 (1816)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$48.4

Value

$48.23

PnL

-$0.17

Record

71%

917-377 (1294)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$27.4

Value

$17.6

PnL

-$9.8

Record

53%

7310-6373 (13683)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.81

Value

$15.53

PnL

-$1.28

Record

53%

2063-1842 (3905)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$2.73

Value

$2.7

PnL

-$0.03

Record

47%

849-947 (1796)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$3.06

Value

$2.67

PnL

-$0.39

Record

51%

898-846 (1744)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$2.65

Value

$2.31

PnL

-$0.34

Record

58%

818-587 (1405)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 56%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.2%

56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$71.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

171.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.