Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 13°C on November 15?

10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 87¢ · $239 held · ends Nov 15

Yes13¢No87¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$238.94

Combined PnL

$23.63

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 10 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes13%

No87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$99.22

Total Shares130

Combined PnL+$23.63

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432ARB<$100	Noavg 82.4¢	$236.9	$139.72	-$46.86	42% 754-1062 (1816)
└ No leg	Noavg 82.4¢	$108.76	$108.24	-$12.42
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 40.3¢	$70.48	$31.48	-$34.44
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 60¢	$24	$26.8	+$2.8	53% 7310-6373 (13683)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 74.3¢	$21.02	$21.76	+$0.74	71% 917-377 (1294)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 61.7¢	$19.72	$18.7	+$0.84	53% 2063-1842 (3905)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 79¢	$7.9	$7.75	-$0.15	28% 3256-8289 (11545)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 57¢	$5.7	$6.7	+$1	34% 329-644 (973)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 78¢	$4.02	$4	-$0.03	47% 849-947 (1796)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 78¢	$52.56	$3.69	+$18.28	35% 3858-7087 (10945)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 57¢	$3.11	$3.65	+$0.55	36% 286-506 (792)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 73¢	$3.65	$3.35	-$0.3	24% 752-2351 (3103)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 77¢	$2.93	$2.82	-$0.11	52% 862-787 (1649)

241532532432ARB<$100

Invested

$236.9

Value

$139.72

PnL

-$46.86

Record

42%

754-1062 (1816)

Both legs:

No$108.7682.4¢-$12.42

Yes$70.4840.3¢-$34.44

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$24

Value

$26.8

PnL

+$2.8

Record

53%

7310-6373 (13683)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$21.02

Value

$21.76

PnL

+$0.74

Record

71%

917-377 (1294)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$19.72

Value

$18.7

PnL

+$0.84

Record

53%

2063-1842 (3905)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$7.9

Value

$7.75

PnL

-$0.15

Record

28%

3256-8289 (11545)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$5.7

Value

$6.7

PnL

+$1

Record

34%

329-644 (973)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$4.02

Value

PnL

-$0.03

Record

47%

849-947 (1796)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$52.56

Value

$3.69

PnL

+$18.28

Record

35%

3858-7087 (10945)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$3.11

Value

$3.65

PnL

+$0.55

Record

36%

286-506 (792)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$3.65

Value

$3.35

PnL

-$0.3

Record

24%

752-2351 (3103)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$2.93

Value

$2.82

PnL

-$0.11

Record

52%

862-787 (1649)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 10 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.5%

87.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.