Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 12°C on November 15?
11 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $460 held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 100%
$459.73
$6.51
90¢ → 100¢
+11% since entry · 11 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
11 of 11 top traders (100%)10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 90.1¢ | $371.98 | $342 | -$2.09 | 42% 754-1062 (1816) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $31.6 | $36 | +$4.4 | 53% 7310-6373 (13683) |
12 123987456<$100 | Noavg 96.4¢ | $24.1 | $24 | -$0.1 | 33% 80-164 (244) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 91.4¢ | $19.18 | $15.71 | +$1.38 | 53% 2063-1842 (3905) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $9.7 | $9.6 | -$0.1 | 28% 3256-8289 (11545) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $6.79 | $6.36 | -$0.42 | 24% 752-2351 (3103) |
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $5.99 | $5.99 | -$0.01 | 57% 796-604 (1400) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $5.76 | $5.7 | -$0.06 | 52% 862-787 (1649) |
BI Bilberry<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $4.56 | $5.4 | +$0.84 | 40% 46-69 (115) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $5.18 | $5.18 | -$0.01 | 47% 849-947 (1796) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $18.56 | $3.79 | +$2.68 | 35% 3858-7087 (10945) |
Invested
$371.98
Value
$342
PnL
-$2.09
Record
42%
754-1062 (1816)
Invested
$31.6
Value
$36
PnL
+$4.4
Record
53%
7310-6373 (13683)
Invested
$24.1
Value
$24
PnL
-$0.1
Record
33%
80-164 (244)
Invested
$19.18
Value
$15.71
PnL
+$1.38
Record
53%
2063-1842 (3905)
Invested
$9.7
Value
$9.6
PnL
-$0.1
Record
28%
3256-8289 (11545)
Invested
$6.79
Value
$6.36
PnL
-$0.42
Record
24%
752-2351 (3103)
Invested
$5.99
Value
$5.99
PnL
-$0.01
Record
57%
796-604 (1400)
Invested
$5.76
Value
$5.7
PnL
-$0.06
Record
52%
862-787 (1649)
Invested
$4.56
Value
$5.4
PnL
+$0.84
Record
40%
46-69 (115)
Invested
$5.18
Value
$5.18
PnL
-$0.01
Record
47%
849-947 (1796)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$18.56
Value
$3.79
PnL
+$2.68
Record
35%
3858-7087 (10945)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
241532532432
No — $342
cigarettes
No — $36
123987456
No — $24
ghorrock
No — $15.71
qwen300.fund
No — $9.6
luciebot
No — $6.36
0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658
No — $5.99
0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702
No — $5.7
Bilberry
No — $5.4
0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023
No — $5.18