Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 11°C on November 15?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 100¢ · $185 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$185.43

Combined PnL

-$6.2

Smart Money Entry

96.6¢ → 100¢

+4% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$185.4

Total Shares188

Combined PnL+$3.96

Yes4 traders

Total Value$0.03

Total Shares68

Combined PnL-$10.16

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-15 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 96.9¢	$110.47	$112.52	+$2.05	42% 754-1062 (1816)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 96.5¢	$38.6	$39.48	+$0.88	53% 7340-6426 (13766)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 94¢	$14.9	$15.59	+$0.69	53% 2122-1900 (4022)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 96.8¢	$9.68	$9.87	+$0.19	30% 1151-2701 (3852)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 96.9¢	$5.28	$5.38	+$0.1	42% 1670-2304 (3974)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 96.4¢	$2.5	$2.56	+$0.06	98% 1504-23 (1527)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.82	$0.02	-$2.8	57% 800-608 (1408)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$8.48	$0.01	-$2.05	24% 752-2355 (3107)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$56.58	$0.01	-$4.41	35% 3858-7089 (10947)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.91	$0.01	-$0.9	28% 3261-8293 (11554)

241532532432

Invested

$110.47

Value

$112.52

PnL

+$2.05

Record

42%

754-1062 (1816)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$38.6

Value

$39.48

PnL

+$0.88

Record

53%

7340-6426 (13766)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$14.9

Value

$15.59

PnL

+$0.69

Record

53%

2122-1900 (4022)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$9.68

Value

$9.87

PnL

+$0.19

Record

30%

1151-2701 (3852)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$5.28

Value

$5.38

PnL

+$0.1

Record

42%

1670-2304 (3974)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.56

PnL

+$0.06

Record

98%

1504-23 (1527)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.82

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$2.8

Record

57%

800-608 (1408)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.48

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.05

Record

24%

752-2355 (3107)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$56.58

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$4.41

Record

35%

3858-7089 (10947)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.91

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.9

Record

28%

3261-8293 (11554)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-15 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.