Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 10°C on November 15?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $34 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$33.67

Combined PnL

-$35.2

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$33.5

Total Shares34

Combined PnL+$0.23

Yes6 traders

Total Value$0.17

Total Shares337

Combined PnL-$35.43

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$19.92	$19.99	+$0.07	53% 7402-6535 (13937)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$9.86	$10	+$0.14	52% 2216-2019 (4235)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$3.5	$3.52	+$0.02	99% 1517-23 (1540)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$14.36	$0.08	-$14.28	57% 812-615 (1427)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$6.15	$0.03	-$6.11	24% 762-2435 (3197)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.93	$0.03	-$4.9	28% 3267-8303 (11570)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3.83	$0.02	-$3.81	43% 5182-7005 (12187)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$58.04	$0.01	-$5.87	35% 3865-7146 (11011)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.45	$0	-$0.45	36% 1600-2790 (4390)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.92

Value

$19.99

PnL

+$0.07

Record

53%

7402-6535 (13937)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$9.86

Value

$10

PnL

+$0.14

Record

52%

2216-2019 (4235)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$3.5

Value

$3.52

PnL

+$0.02

Record

99%

1517-23 (1540)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.36

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$14.28

Record

57%

812-615 (1427)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.15

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$6.11

Record

24%

762-2435 (3197)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.93

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$4.9

Record

28%

3267-8303 (11570)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.83

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$3.81

Record

43%

5182-7005 (12187)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$58.04

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$5.87

Record

35%

3865-7146 (11011)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.45

Value

PnL

-$0.45

Record

36%

1600-2790 (4390)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.