Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C on November 14?

13 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (87%) · No at 100¢ · $272 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 87%

Total Value

$272.37

Combined PnL

$1.88

Smart Money Entry

98.5¢ → 99.9¢

+1% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 15 top traders (87%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No13 traders

Total Value$270.24

Total Shares271

Combined PnL+$2.59

Yes2 traders

Total Value$2.05

Total Shares36

Combined PnL-$0.71

No — 87%Yes — 13%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$91.8	$91.88	+$0.08	51% 746-711 (1457)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 88.9¢	$24.26	$27.21	+$2.95	52% 1608-1475 (3083)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$24.95	$24.93	-$0.03	29% 3160-7828 (10988)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$22.68	$22.68	+$0	49% 736-769 (1505)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$21.42	$21.47	+$0.04	50% 701-690 (1391)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$18.83	$18.83	+$0	58% 684-501 (1185)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$14.94	$15.08	+$0.14	63% 716-429 (1145)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$13.71	$13.71	+$0	51% 787-755 (1542)
SU suntori<$100	Noavg 97.1¢	$10.85	$11.14	+$0.29	45% 2420-2899 (5319)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$10.08	$10.07	-$0.01	46% 1077-1282 (2359)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$18.96	$8.97	-$0.89	27% 673-1791 (2464)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$2.5	$2.51	+$0.01	99% 1213-13 (1226)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.5¢	$64.49	$2.03	-$0.7	40% 625-948 (1573)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$1.75	$1.75	-$0	58% 703-504 (1207)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.03	$0.02	-$0.01	48% 762-815 (1577)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$91.8

Value

$91.88

PnL

+$0.08

Record

51%

746-711 (1457)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$24.26

Value

$27.21

PnL

+$2.95

Record

52%

1608-1475 (3083)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$24.95

Value

$24.93

PnL

-$0.03

Record

29%

3160-7828 (10988)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$22.68

Value

$22.68

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

736-769 (1505)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$21.42

Value

$21.47

PnL

+$0.04

Record

50%

701-690 (1391)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$18.83

Value

$18.83

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

684-501 (1185)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$14.94

Value

$15.08

PnL

+$0.14

Record

63%

716-429 (1145)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$13.71

Value

$13.71

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

787-755 (1542)

suntori<$100

Invested

$10.85

Value

$11.14

PnL

+$0.29

Record

45%

2420-2899 (5319)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$10.08

Value

$10.07

PnL

-$0.01

Record

46%

1077-1282 (2359)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$18.96

Value

$8.97

PnL

-$0.89

Record

27%

673-1791 (2464)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.51

PnL

+$0.01

Record

99%

1213-13 (1226)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$64.49

Value

$2.03

PnL

-$0.7

Record

40%

625-948 (1573)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$1.75

Value

$1.75

PnL

-$0

Record

58%

703-504 (1207)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.01

Record

48%

762-815 (1577)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 15 top traders (87%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.