Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 15°C on November 14?

13 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 96¢ · $334 held · ends Nov 14

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$334.47

Combined PnL

$30.42

Smart Money Entry

81.6¢ → 96.2¢

+18% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 13 top traders (100%)12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No13 traders

Total Value$334.47

Total Shares350

Combined PnL+$30.42

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100	Noavg 71¢	$61.06	$81.7	+$20.64	55% 1208-982 (2190)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 95.3¢	$58.63	$58.44	-$0.18	63% 716-429 (1145)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 67.1¢	$74.93	$30.31	+$9.95	40% 625-948 (1573)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 95.3¢	$27.14	$27.06	-$0.09	49% 736-769 (1505)
HE hello.67<$100	Noavg 76.5¢	$20.79	$25.8	+$5.01	56% 2269-1817 (4086)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 95.3¢	$27.72	$25.41	+$0.91	65% 4292-2315 (6607)
Haradwaith	Noavg 73¢	$197.01	$22.46	-$12.36	31% 146-327 (473)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 95¢	$20.45	$20.45	+$0	46% 1077-1282 (2359)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 53.1¢	$7.64	$10.26	+$2.62	52% 1608-1475 (3083)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 95.3¢	$9.53	$9.5	-$0.03	27% 673-1791 (2464)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 74¢	$7.4	$9.5	+$2.1	72% 829-328 (1157)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 89¢	$8.1	$8.64	+$0.55	50% 701-690 (1391)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 70¢	$3.63	$4.93	+$1.3	51% 746-711 (1457)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100

Invested

$61.06

Value

$81.7

PnL

+$20.64

Record

55%

1208-982 (2190)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$58.63

Value

$58.44

PnL

-$0.18

Record

63%

716-429 (1145)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$74.93

Value

$30.31

PnL

+$9.95

Record

40%

625-948 (1573)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$27.14

Value

$27.06

PnL

-$0.09

Record

49%

736-769 (1505)

hello.67<$100

Invested

$20.79

Value

$25.8

PnL

+$5.01

Record

56%

2269-1817 (4086)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$27.72

Value

$25.41

PnL

+$0.91

Record

65%

4292-2315 (6607)

Haradwaith

Invested

$197.01

Value

$22.46

PnL

-$12.36

Record

31%

146-327 (473)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$20.45

Value

$20.45

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

1077-1282 (2359)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$7.64

Value

$10.26

PnL

+$2.62

Record

52%

1608-1475 (3083)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$9.53

Value

$9.5

PnL

-$0.03

Record

27%

673-1791 (2464)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$7.4

Value

$9.5

PnL

+$2.1

Record

72%

829-328 (1157)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$8.1

Value

$8.64

PnL

+$0.55

Record

50%

701-690 (1391)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$3.63

Value

$4.93

PnL

+$1.3

Record

51%

746-711 (1457)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 13 top traders (100%)12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.3%

96.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.