Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 14°C on November 14?

10 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 84¢ · $261 held · ends Nov 14

Yes16¢No84¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

Total Value

$260.64

Combined PnL

$18.96

Smart Money Entry

64.9¢ → 84¢

+29% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 16 top traders (63%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes16%

No84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$110.95

Total Shares252

Combined PnL+$12.56

No10 traders

Total Value$149.67

Total Shares223

Combined PnL+$6.39

Yes — 38%No — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 35.1¢	$81.43	$47.67	+$7.92	40% 625-948 (1573)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 46.5¢	$73.49	$32.98	-$1.29	72% 829-328 (1157)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 73.2¢	$57.25	$32.8	+$5.98	65% 4292-2315 (6607)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 59.4¢	$18.1	$25.27	+$7.18	51% 746-711 (1457)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 65¢	$39.97	$25.22	-$14.75	58% 703-504 (1207)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 52.5¢	$19.94	$23.16	+$3.22	58% 684-501 (1185)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 30.9¢	$14.98	$19.36	+$4.38	56% 2269-1817 (4086)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 70.1¢	$13.48	$15.95	+$2.47	50% 701-690 (1391)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 79¢	$12.71	$10.11	+$1.03	51% 787-755 (1542)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 52.3¢	$9.52	$7.28	-$2.24	45% 2420-2899 (5319)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 75.9¢	$5.95	$6.51	+$0.56	63% 716-429 (1145)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 75.7¢	$6.17	$6.46	+$0.29	46% 1077-1282 (2359)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 45¢	$2.77	$3.08	+$0.31	49% 736-769 (1505)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 32¢	$9.63	$2.36	+$0.03	52% 1608-1475 (3083)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.86	$1.31	+$3.77	27% 673-1791 (2464)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 65¢	$1	$1.11	+$0.11	48% 762-815 (1577)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$81.43

Value

$47.67

PnL

+$7.92

Record

40%

625-948 (1573)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$73.49

Value

$32.98

PnL

-$1.29

Record

72%

829-328 (1157)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$57.25

Value

$32.8

PnL

+$5.98

Record

65%

4292-2315 (6607)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$18.1

Value

$25.27

PnL

+$7.18

Record

51%

746-711 (1457)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$39.97

Value

$25.22

PnL

-$14.75

Record

58%

703-504 (1207)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$19.94

Value

$23.16

PnL

+$3.22

Record

58%

684-501 (1185)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.98

Value

$19.36

PnL

+$4.38

Record

56%

2269-1817 (4086)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$13.48

Value

$15.95

PnL

+$2.47

Record

50%

701-690 (1391)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$12.71

Value

$10.11

PnL

+$1.03

Record

51%

787-755 (1542)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.52

Value

$7.28

PnL

-$2.24

Record

45%

2420-2899 (5319)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$5.95

Value

$6.51

PnL

+$0.56

Record

63%

716-429 (1145)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$6.17

Value

$6.46

PnL

+$0.29

Record

46%

1077-1282 (2359)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$2.77

Value

$3.08

PnL

+$0.31

Record

49%

736-769 (1505)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.63

Value

$2.36

PnL

+$0.03

Record

52%

1608-1475 (3083)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.86

Value

$1.31

PnL

+$3.77

Record

27%

673-1791 (2464)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

Value

$1.11

PnL

+$0.11

Record

48%

762-815 (1577)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 16 top traders (63%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.6%

84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.