Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 13°C on November 14?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 61¢ · $316 held · ends Nov 14

Yes39¢No61¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 90%

Total Value

$315.61

Combined PnL

-$14.44

Smart Money Entry

85.6¢ → 61¢

-29% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes39%

No61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$307.11

Total Shares370

Combined PnL+$3.02

Yes1 trader

Total Value$8.49

Total Shares85

Combined PnL-$17.46

No — 90%Yes — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU suntori	Noavg 90.6¢	$142.85	$134.12	-$8.73	46% 2359-2814 (5173)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 91¢	$81.64	$63	-$1.92	40% 620-939 (1559)
Haradwaith	Noavg 82¢	$203.24	$33.67	+$14.86	31% 146-327 (473)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 90.3¢	$43.05	$30.02	+$0.81	53% 1572-1421 (2993)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 74.3¢	$72.51	$24.47	-$3.04	72% 823-323 (1146)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 69.1¢	$9.87	$9.86	-$0.01	58% 679-500 (1179)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$93.93	$8.49	-$17.46	56% 2268-1802 (4070)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 57¢	$5.16	$5.66	+$0.5	51% 782-754 (1536)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 57¢	$2.88	$3.16	+$0.28	51% 742-710 (1452)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 57¢	$2.86	$3.14	+$0.28	63% 714-428 (1142)

suntori

Invested

$142.85

Value

$134.12

PnL

-$8.73

Record

46%

2359-2814 (5173)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$81.64

Value

$63

PnL

-$1.92

Record

40%

620-939 (1559)

Haradwaith

Invested

$203.24

Value

$33.67

PnL

+$14.86

Record

31%

146-327 (473)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$43.05

Value

$30.02

PnL

+$0.81

Record

53%

1572-1421 (2993)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$72.51

Value

$24.47

PnL

-$3.04

Record

72%

823-323 (1146)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$9.87

Value

$9.86

PnL

-$0.01

Record

58%

679-500 (1179)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$93.93

Value

$8.49

PnL

-$17.46

Record

56%

2268-1802 (4070)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$5.16

Value

$5.66

PnL

+$0.5

Record

51%

782-754 (1536)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$2.88

Value

$3.16

PnL

+$0.28

Record

51%

742-710 (1452)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$2.86

Value

$3.14

PnL

+$0.28

Record

63%

714-428 (1142)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 61%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.2%

61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$58.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

158.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.