Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 12°C on November 14?

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (58%) · No at 100¢ · $477 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 58%

Total Value

$477.45

Combined PnL

-$29.11

Smart Money Entry

96.6¢ → 100¢

+3% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$477.21

Total Shares478

Combined PnL+$15.51

Yes5 traders

Total Value$0.24

Total Shares476

Combined PnL-$44.62

No — 58%Yes — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 58% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 96.6¢	$437.39	$358.82	+$11.79	40% 633-964 (1597)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 97.4¢	$44.88	$40.99	+$0.96	52% 1661-1516 (3177)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$30.16	$30.6	+$0.44	49% 769-816 (1585)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 94.1¢	$18.83	$19.99	+$1.16	72% 841-329 (1170)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 94.7¢	$18.13	$19.12	+$1	58% 705-507 (1212)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 96.8¢	$5.02	$5.18	+$0.16	50% 704-694 (1398)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$2.5	$2.51	+$0.01	99% 1243-13 (1256)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$28.18	$0.16	-$28.03	51% 790-758 (1548)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$24.29	$0.02	-$6.1	44% 5060-6556 (11616)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.18	$0.02	-$4.16	27% 679-1844 (2523)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3.19	$0.02	-$3.18	26% 548-1576 (2124)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3.18	$0.02	-$3.16	29% 3170-7895 (11065)

241532532432

Invested

$437.39

Value

$358.82

PnL

+$11.79

Record

40%

633-964 (1597)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$44.88

Value

$40.99

PnL

+$0.96

Record

52%

1661-1516 (3177)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$30.16

Value

$30.6

PnL

+$0.44

Record

49%

769-816 (1585)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$18.83

Value

$19.99

PnL

+$1.16

Record

72%

841-329 (1170)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$18.13

Value

$19.12

PnL

+$1

Record

58%

705-507 (1212)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$5.02

Value

$5.18

PnL

+$0.16

Record

50%

704-694 (1398)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.51

PnL

+$0.01

Record

99%

1243-13 (1256)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.18

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$28.03

Record

51%

790-758 (1548)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.29

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$6.1

Record

44%

5060-6556 (11616)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.18

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$4.16

Record

27%

679-1844 (2523)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.19

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$3.18

Record

26%

548-1576 (2124)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.18

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$3.16

Record

29%

3170-7895 (11065)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 58% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.