Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C or higher on November 13?

10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (91%) · No at 100¢ · $250 held · ends Nov 13

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 91%

Total Value

$250.03

Combined PnL

-$17.45

Smart Money Entry

99.8¢ → 99.9¢

+0% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$249.47

Total Shares250

Combined PnL-$6.69

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.56

Total Shares125

Combined PnL-$10.76

No — 91%Yes — 9%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$66.93	$66.98	+$0.05	48% 554-604 (1158)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$65.76	$65.73	-$0.03	48% 597-652 (1249)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$29.97	$29.99	+$0.02	30% 2982-7081 (10063)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$21.36	$21.41	+$0.04	61% 524-330 (854)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$21.03	$21.07	+$0.04	46% 562-657 (1219)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$18.98	$18.99	+$0.01	32% 551-1148 (1699)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$9.99	$9.99	-$0	46% 132-153 (285)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$7.14	$7.17	+$0.02	49% 538-569 (1107)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5.16	$5.17	+$0	46% 575-687 (1262)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$80.53	$2.99	-$6.83	37% 3509-6100 (9609)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$11.32	$0.56	-$10.76	61% 2171-1370 (3541)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$66.93

Value

$66.98

PnL

+$0.05

Record

48%

554-604 (1158)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$65.76

Value

$65.73

PnL

-$0.03

Record

48%

597-652 (1249)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$29.97

Value

$29.99

PnL

+$0.02

Record

30%

2982-7081 (10063)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$21.36

Value

$21.41

PnL

+$0.04

Record

61%

524-330 (854)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$21.03

Value

$21.07

PnL

+$0.04

Record

46%

562-657 (1219)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$18.98

Value

$18.99

PnL

+$0.01

Record

32%

551-1148 (1699)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$9.99

Value

$9.99

PnL

-$0

Record

46%

132-153 (285)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$7.14

Value

$7.17

PnL

+$0.02

Record

49%

538-569 (1107)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$5.16

Value

$5.17

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

575-687 (1262)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$80.53

Value

$2.99

PnL

-$6.83

Record

37%

3509-6100 (9609)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.32

Value

$0.56

PnL

-$10.76

Record

61%

2171-1370 (3541)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.