Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C on November 13?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 94¢ · $186 held · ends Nov 13

Yes6¢No94¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$186.07

Combined PnL

$14

Smart Money Entry

93.8¢ → 94.3¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$84.88

Total Shares981

Combined PnL+$13.76

No5 traders

Total Value$101.19

Total Shares108

Combined PnL+$0.23

Yes — 44%No — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 44%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 44% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 7.3¢	$54.13	$64.45	+$10.33	61% 2171-1370 (3541)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 92.3¢	$24.17	$24.58	+$0.41	58% 527-386 (913)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 93.9¢	$20.14	$20.18	+$0.04	48% 597-652 (1249)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.8¢	$13	$19.46	+$6.46	37% 457-784 (1241)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 92¢	$18.41	$18.83	+$0.42	65% 4199-2222 (6421)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 97.9¢	$19.58	$18.82	-$0.76	53% 6191-5476 (11667)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 93.5¢	$18.65	$18.77	+$0.12	54% 994-856 (1850)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.73	$0.69	-$0.04	61% 517-328 (845)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$48.72	$0.27	-$2.99	37% 3509-6100 (9609)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$54.13

Value

$64.45

PnL

+$10.33

Record

61%

2171-1370 (3541)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$24.17

Value

$24.58

PnL

+$0.41

Record

58%

527-386 (913)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$20.14

Value

$20.18

PnL

+$0.04

Record

48%

597-652 (1249)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13

Value

$19.46

PnL

+$6.46

Record

37%

457-784 (1241)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$18.41

Value

$18.83

PnL

+$0.42

Record

65%

4199-2222 (6421)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.58

Value

$18.82

PnL

-$0.76

Record

53%

6191-5476 (11667)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$18.65

Value

$18.77

PnL

+$0.12

Record

54%

994-856 (1850)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.73

Value

$0.69

PnL

-$0.04

Record

61%

517-328 (845)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$48.72

Value

$0.27

PnL

-$2.99

Record

37%

3509-6100 (9609)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 44%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 44% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.5%

94.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.