Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C on November 13?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 64¢ · $222 held · ends Nov 13

Yes37¢No63¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$221.7

Combined PnL

$32.99

Research grade

NeutralNo at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes37%

No64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$125.24

Total Shares343

Combined PnL+$36.46

No6 traders

Total Value$96.46

Total Shares146

Combined PnL-$3.48

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67CTR	Yesavg 24.2¢	$69.18	$104.5	+$35.32	63% 2143-1256 (3399)
BI Bilberry<$100	Noavg 62.8¢	$40.64	$41.71	+$1.07	32% 19-41 (60)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 35¢	$17.85	$18.62	+$0.76	35% 414-754 (1168)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 69¢	$14.8	$14.37	-$0.43	48% 510-557 (1067)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 85¢	$17	$13.4	-$3.6	53% 6080-5449 (11529)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 66.1¢	$15.04	$12.81	-$0.58	76% 675-216 (891)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 66¢	$10.62	$10.78	+$0.16	48% 492-535 (1027)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 69¢	$3.49	$3.39	-$0.1	47% 524-596 (1120)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 32¢	$1.75	$2.13	+$0.38	53% 925-815 (1740)

hello.67CTR

Yes

Invested

$69.18

Value

$104.5

PnL

+$35.32

Record

63%

2143-1256 (3399)

Bilberry<$100

Invested

$40.64

Value

$41.71

PnL

+$1.07

Record

32%

19-41 (60)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.85

Value

$18.62

PnL

+$0.76

Record

35%

414-754 (1168)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$14.8

Value

$14.37

PnL

-$0.43

Record

48%

510-557 (1067)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$17

Value

$13.4

PnL

-$3.6

Record

53%

6080-5449 (11529)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$15.04

Value

$12.81

PnL

-$0.58

Record

76%

675-216 (891)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$10.62

Value

$10.78

PnL

+$0.16

Record

48%

492-535 (1027)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$3.49

Value

$3.39

PnL

-$0.1

Record

47%

524-596 (1120)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.75

Value

$2.13

PnL

+$0.38

Record

53%

925-815 (1740)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 64%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.