Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (56%). 2 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 15°C on November 13?

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (22%) · Yes at 44¢ · $286 held · ends Nov 13

Yes44¢No56¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 22%

Total Value

$285.95

Combined PnL

-$23.73

Smart Money Entry

38.9¢ → 44¢

+13% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 44%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 9 top traders (22%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes44%

No56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$158.1

Total Shares433

Combined PnL-$10.56

No7 traders

Total Value$127.85

Total Shares251

Combined PnL-$13.17

Yes — 22%No — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 38.9¢	$149.03	$139.73	-$9.3	59% 1032-732 (1764)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 56.2¢	$97.64	$88.55	-$9.08	35% 393-725 (1118)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 39¢	$19.63	$18.37	-$1.26	64% 2127-1183 (3310)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 60¢	$12.01	$10.21	-$1.8	53% 6040-5408 (11448)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 53.7¢	$8.2	$7.79	-$0.41	47% 506-567 (1073)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 55.8¢	$7.92	$7.23	-$0.68	58% 456-326 (782)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 51.7¢	$6.57	$6.48	-$0.09	53% 866-756 (1622)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 58¢	$4.69	$4.12	-$0.57	63% 445-264 (709)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 59¢	$4.01	$3.46	-$0.54	77% 652-199 (851)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$149.03

Value

$139.73

PnL

-$9.3

Record

59%

1032-732 (1764)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$97.64

Value

$88.55

PnL

-$9.08

Record

35%

393-725 (1118)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.63

Value

$18.37

PnL

-$1.26

Record

64%

2127-1183 (3310)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$12.01

Value

$10.21

PnL

-$1.8

Record

53%

6040-5408 (11448)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$8.2

Value

$7.79

PnL

-$0.41

Record

47%

506-567 (1073)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$7.92

Value

$7.23

PnL

-$0.68

Record

58%

456-326 (782)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$6.57

Value

$6.48

PnL

-$0.09

Record

53%

866-756 (1622)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$4.69

Value

$4.12

PnL

-$0.57

Record

63%

445-264 (709)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$4.01

Value

$3.46

PnL

-$0.54

Record

77%

652-199 (851)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 44%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 9 top traders (22%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.2%

44.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$116.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

216.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.