Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 14°C on November 13?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 84¢ · $391 held · ends Nov 13

Yes16¢No84¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 89%

Total Value

$390.74

Combined PnL

$41.91

Smart Money Entry

72.7¢ → 84¢

+16% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes16%

No84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$389.58

Total Shares463

Combined PnL+$41.85

Yes1 trader

Total Value$1.16

Total Shares6

Combined PnL+$0.06

No — 89%Yes — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+29 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Noavg 70.7¢	$595.56	$289.21	+$35.19	59% 1032-732 (1764)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 80¢	$32	$33.6	+$1.6	77% 652-199 (851)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 65.1¢	$15.14	$19.52	+$4.38	53% 6040-5408 (11448)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 84¢	$18.02	$18.02	+$0	47% 506-567 (1073)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 85¢	$13.68	$13.52	-$0.16	47% 521-590 (1111)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 81¢	$8.84	$8.82	-$0.02	53% 866-756 (1622)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 80¢	$5.74	$6.03	+$0.29	44% 501-627 (1128)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$1.1	$1.16	+$0.06	35% 393-725 (1118)
HE hello.67<$100	Noavg 71¢	$43.3	$0.87	+$0.56	64% 2127-1183 (3310)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Invested

$595.56

Value

$289.21

PnL

+$35.19

Record

59%

1032-732 (1764)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$32

Value

$33.6

PnL

+$1.6

Record

77%

652-199 (851)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$15.14

Value

$19.52

PnL

+$4.38

Record

53%

6040-5408 (11448)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$18.02

Value

$18.02

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

506-567 (1073)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$13.68

Value

$13.52

PnL

-$0.16

Record

47%

521-590 (1111)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$8.84

Value

$8.82

PnL

-$0.02

Record

53%

866-756 (1622)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$5.74

Value

$6.03

PnL

+$0.29

Record

44%

501-627 (1128)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.1

Value

$1.16

PnL

+$0.06

Record

35%

393-725 (1118)

hello.67<$100

Invested

$43.3

Value

$0.87

PnL

+$0.56

Record

64%

2127-1183 (3310)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+29 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.6%

84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.