Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 13°C on November 13?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 99¢ · $169 held · ends Nov 13

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 88%

Total Value

$169.06

Combined PnL

-$10.78

Smart Money Entry

97.8¢ → 99.4¢

+2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$165.95

Total Shares167

Combined PnL-$2.57

Yes1 trader

Total Value$3.11

Total Shares125

Combined PnL-$8.21

No — 88%Yes — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$92.75	$93.64	+$0.89	43% 890-1199 (2089)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$29.82	$29.79	-$0.03	30% 2982-7081 (10063)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 92¢	$18.4	$19.72	+$1.32	53% 6191-5476 (11667)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$9.95	$9.93	-$0.02	46% 132-153 (285)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 98¢	$4.96	$4.99	+$0.03	61% 524-330 (854)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 97¢	$4.85	$4.93	+$0.08	37% 457-784 (1241)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$11.32	$3.11	-$8.21	61% 2171-1370 (3541)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$79.91	$2.95	-$4.85	37% 3509-6100 (9609)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$92.75

Value

$93.64

PnL

+$0.89

Record

43%

890-1199 (2089)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$29.82

Value

$29.79

PnL

-$0.03

Record

30%

2982-7081 (10063)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$18.4

Value

$19.72

PnL

+$1.32

Record

53%

6191-5476 (11667)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$9.95

Value

$9.93

PnL

-$0.02

Record

46%

132-153 (285)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$4.96

Value

$4.99

PnL

+$0.03

Record

61%

524-330 (854)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$4.85

Value

$4.93

PnL

+$0.08

Record

37%

457-784 (1241)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.32

Value

$3.11

PnL

-$8.21

Record

61%

2171-1370 (3541)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$79.91

Value

$2.95

PnL

-$4.85

Record

37%

3509-6100 (9609)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.