Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 11°C on November 13?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $29 held · ends Nov 13

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$28.8

Combined PnL

-$38.85

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$28.62

Total Shares29

Combined PnL+$0.03

Yes6 traders

Total Value$0.19

Total Shares374

Combined PnL-$38.88

No — 25%Yes — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$21.43	$21.44	+$0.01	58% 546-400 (946)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$7.16	$7.18	+$0.02	48% 613-668 (1281)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$29.44	$0.07	-$14.74	60% 534-358 (892)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$11.32	$0.06	-$11.26	61% 2173-1396 (3569)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$43.66	$0.02	-$7.28	36% 3528-6156 (9684)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.73	$0.02	-$2.71	30% 3000-7146 (10146)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.73	$0.01	-$1.72	32% 560-1188 (1748)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.18	$0.01	-$1.18	38% 1420-2305 (3725)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$21.43

Value

$21.44

PnL

+$0.01

Record

58%

546-400 (946)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$7.16

Value

$7.18

PnL

+$0.02

Record

48%

613-668 (1281)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.44

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$14.74

Record

60%

534-358 (892)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.32

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$11.26

Record

61%

2173-1396 (3569)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.66

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$7.28

Record

36%

3528-6156 (9684)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.73

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$2.71

Record

30%

3000-7146 (10146)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.73

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.72

Record

32%

560-1188 (1748)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.18

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.18

Record

38%

1420-2305 (3725)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.