Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 10°C on November 13?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $45 held · ends Nov 13

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$44.88

Combined PnL

-$37.41

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$44.7

Total Shares45

Combined PnL+$0.02

Yes6 traders

Total Value$0.19

Total Shares374

Combined PnL-$37.43

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$21.43	$21.44	+$0.01	43% 894-1202 (2096)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$16.07	$16.08	+$0.01	48% 558-608 (1166)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$7.17	$7.18	+$0	46% 566-660 (1226)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$13.36	$0.07	-$13.29	61% 521-333 (854)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$11.32	$0.06	-$11.26	61% 2171-1370 (3541)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$43.66	$0.02	-$7.28	36% 3514-6115 (9629)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.73	$0.02	-$2.71	30% 2985-7096 (10081)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.73	$0.01	-$1.72	32% 553-1159 (1712)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.18	$0.01	-$1.18	38% 1413-2279 (3692)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$21.43

Value

$21.44

PnL

+$0.01

Record

43%

894-1202 (2096)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$16.07

Value

$16.08

PnL

+$0.01

Record

48%

558-608 (1166)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$7.17

Value

$7.18

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

566-660 (1226)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.36

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$13.29

Record

61%

521-333 (854)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.32

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$11.26

Record

61%

2171-1370 (3541)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.66

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$7.28

Record

36%

3514-6115 (9629)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.73

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$2.71

Record

30%

2985-7096 (10081)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.73

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.72

Record

32%

553-1159 (1712)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.18

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.18

Record

38%

1413-2279 (3692)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.