Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 9°C or below on November 12?

1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (13%) · No at 100¢ · $200 held · ends Nov 12

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 13%

Total Value

$200.17

Combined PnL

-$50.39

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$199.9

Total Shares200

Combined PnL+$0.12

Yes7 traders

Total Value$0.27

Total Shares540

Combined PnL-$50.51

No — 13%Yes — 87%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD	Noavg 99.9¢	$199.78	$199.9	+$0.12	99% 649-8 (657)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$26.06	$0.14	-$25.91	58% 1038-742 (1780)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$7.23	$0.04	-$7.19	47% 4818-5478 (10296)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.76	$0.03	-$5.73	63% 2135-1236 (3371)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$15.23	$0.03	-$6.23	37% 3458-5944 (9402)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$11.87	$0.02	-$3.55	19% 816-3584 (4400)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.45	$0.01	-$1.45	34% 523-997 (1520)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.45	$0	-$0.45	39% 1399-2233 (3632)

1DVSBSTD

Invested

$199.78

Value

$199.9

PnL

+$0.12

Record

99%

649-8 (657)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.06

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$25.91

Record

58%

1038-742 (1780)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.23

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$7.19

Record

47%

4818-5478 (10296)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.76

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$5.73

Record

63%

2135-1236 (3371)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.23

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$6.23

Record

37%

3458-5944 (9402)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.87

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$3.55

Record

19%

816-3584 (4400)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.45

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.45

Record

34%

523-997 (1520)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.45

Value

PnL

-$0.45

Record

39%

1399-2233 (3632)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.