Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C or higher on November 12?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $329 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$328.76
$0.2
99.8¢ → 100¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD | Noavg 99.9¢ | $179.82 | $179.82 | +$0 | 99% 268-2 (270) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $74.85 | $74.93 | +$0.08 | 24% 77-243 (320) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $39.88 | $39.96 | +$0.08 | 53% 5656-5081 (10737) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $26.34 | $26.36 | +$0.03 | 27% 936-2514 (3450) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $7.68 | $7.69 | +$0.02 | 37% 3197-5378 (8575) |
Invested
$179.82
Value
$179.82
PnL
+$0
Record
99%
268-2 (270)
Invested
$74.85
Value
$74.93
PnL
+$0.08
Record
24%
77-243 (320)
Invested
$39.88
Value
$39.96
PnL
+$0.08
Record
53%
5656-5081 (10737)
Invested
$26.34
Value
$26.36
PnL
+$0.03
Record
27%
936-2514 (3450)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$7.68
Value
$7.69
PnL
+$0.02
Record
37%
3197-5378 (8575)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.