Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on November 12?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $187 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$187.46
-$0.91
99.6¢ → 99.6¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 61%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $74.74 | $74.21 | -$0.52 | 40% 1447-2158 (3605) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $39.8 | $39.88 | +$0.08 | 53% 5614-5046 (10660) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $39.86 | $39.58 | -$0.28 | 51% 4609-4510 (9119) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $26.31 | $26.11 | -$0.2 | 21% 66-241 (307) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $7.66 | $7.68 | +$0.02 | 37% 3161-5372 (8533) |
Invested
$74.74
Value
$74.21
PnL
-$0.52
Record
40%
1447-2158 (3605)
Invested
$39.8
Value
$39.88
PnL
+$0.08
Record
53%
5614-5046 (10660)
balthazar<$100Invested
$39.86
Value
$39.58
PnL
-$0.28
Record
51%
4609-4510 (9119)
Invested
$26.31
Value
$26.11
PnL
-$0.2
Record
21%
66-241 (307)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$7.66
Value
$7.68
PnL
+$0.02
Record
37%
3161-5372 (8533)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.