Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C on November 12?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 96¢ · $325 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$324.52
-$7.6
94.4¢ → 96.4¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+20 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 93.9¢ | $243.37 | $244.32 | +$0.95 | 29% 237-575 (812) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 96.3¢ | $38.52 | $37.56 | -$0.96 | 53% 5511-4919 (10430) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 95.4¢ | $18.36 | $18.56 | +$0.2 | 54% 383-321 (704) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.2¢ | $24.43 | $16.85 | -$7.57 | 69% 2062-948 (3010) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 96.7¢ | $7.44 | $7.23 | -$0.21 | 37% 3085-5357 (8442) |
Invested
$243.37
Value
$244.32
PnL
+$0.95
Record
29%
237-575 (812)
Invested
$38.52
Value
$37.56
PnL
-$0.96
Record
53%
5511-4919 (10430)
Invested
$18.36
Value
$18.56
PnL
+$0.2
Record
54%
383-321 (704)
Invested
$24.43
Value
$16.85
PnL
-$7.57
Record
69%
2062-948 (3010)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$7.44
Value
$7.23
PnL
-$0.21
Record
37%
3085-5357 (8442)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.