Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C on November 12?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 76¢ · $539 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$538.63
-$19.46
78.1¢ → 76¢
-3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 76%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0 | Noavg 78.4¢ | $617.26 | $467.79 | -$20.61 | 59% 1019-705 (1724) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $28.8 | $30.4 | +$1.6 | 53% 5381-4862 (10243) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 82.9¢ | $38.28 | $23.74 | -$2.81 | 53% 325-288 (613) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 18.9¢ | $8.33 | $11 | +$2.67 | 28% 209-544 (753) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $6.01 | $5.7 | -$0.31 | 36% 3004-5342 (8346) |
Invested
$617.26
Value
$467.79
PnL
-$20.61
Record
59%
1019-705 (1724)
Invested
$28.8
Value
$30.4
PnL
+$1.6
Record
53%
5381-4862 (10243)
Invested
$38.28
Value
$23.74
PnL
-$2.81
Record
53%
325-288 (613)
Invested
$8.33
Value
$11
PnL
+$2.67
Record
28%
209-544 (753)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$6.01
Value
$5.7
PnL
-$0.31
Record
36%
3004-5342 (8346)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.