Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 15°C on November 12?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 59¢ · $148 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$147.9
$14.95
Research grade
NeutralNo at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 74%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 33.5¢ | $88.78 | $107.24 | +$18.46 | 59% 1019-705 (1724) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 63¢ | $25.2 | $23.2 | -$2 | 53% 5575-4959 (10534) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 58¢ | $6.9 | $6.9 | +$0 | 30% 256-590 (846) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 64.3¢ | $14.63 | $6.09 | -$1.05 | 54% 445-377 (822) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 64¢ | $4.93 | $4.47 | -$0.46 | 37% 3136-5367 (8503) |
Invested
$88.78
Value
$107.24
PnL
+$18.46
Record
59%
1019-705 (1724)
Invested
$25.2
Value
$23.2
PnL
-$2
Record
53%
5575-4959 (10534)
Invested
$6.9
Value
$6.9
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
256-590 (846)
Invested
$14.63
Value
$6.09
PnL
-$1.05
Record
54%
445-377 (822)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$4.93
Value
$4.47
PnL
-$0.46
Record
37%
3136-5367 (8503)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.