Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 14°C on November 12?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 67¢ · $141 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$141.36
-$13.11
75.1¢ → 67¢
-11% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 67%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0<$100 | Noavg 73.6¢ | $66.64 | $61.84 | -$4.8 | 59% 1019-705 (1724) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $41.17 | $37.48 | -$3.69 | 30% 246-584 (830) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $30.4 | $27.2 | -$3.2 | 53% 5552-4939 (10491) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 26¢ | $10.4 | $9.6 | -$0.8 | 69% 2062-948 (3010) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $5.85 | $5.24 | -$0.62 | 37% 3112-5362 (8474) |
Invested
$66.64
Value
$61.84
PnL
-$4.8
Record
59%
1019-705 (1724)
Invested
$41.17
Value
$37.48
PnL
-$3.69
Record
30%
246-584 (830)
Invested
$30.4
Value
$27.2
PnL
-$3.2
Record
53%
5552-4939 (10491)
Invested
$10.4
Value
$9.6
PnL
-$0.8
Record
69%
2062-948 (3010)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$5.85
Value
$5.24
PnL
-$0.62
Record
37%
3112-5362 (8474)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
67.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.