Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 13°C on November 12?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 95¢ · $185 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$184.65
$1.83
94.4¢ → 94.8¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 95.7¢ | $96.98 | $96.78 | -$0.2 | 14% 60-372 (432) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $37.6 | $38.07 | +$0.47 | 53% 5614-5046 (10660) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 90.4¢ | $22.6 | $23.79 | +$1.19 | 31% 264-600 (864) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $18.79 | $18.68 | -$0.11 | 51% 4609-4510 (9119) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $6.85 | $7.33 | +$0.48 | 37% 3161-5372 (8533) |
Invested
$96.98
Value
$96.78
PnL
-$0.2
Record
14%
60-372 (432)
Invested
$37.6
Value
$38.07
PnL
+$0.47
Record
53%
5614-5046 (10660)
Invested
$22.6
Value
$23.79
PnL
+$1.19
Record
31%
264-600 (864)
balthazar<$100Invested
$18.79
Value
$18.68
PnL
-$0.11
Record
51%
4609-4510 (9119)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$6.85
Value
$7.33
PnL
+$0.48
Record
37%
3161-5372 (8533)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.