Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 12°C on November 12?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $207 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$207.12
$0.56
98.9¢ → 99¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 55%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $74.63 | $74.21 | -$0.41 | 27% 928-2514 (3442) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 98.4¢ | $39.36 | $39.8 | +$0.44 | 53% 5614-5046 (10660) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $39.8 | $39.58 | -$0.22 | 51% 4609-4510 (9119) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $26.26 | $26.11 | -$0.15 | 40% 1447-2158 (3605) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 96.4¢ | $19.28 | $19.9 | +$0.62 | 31% 264-600 (864) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 95.9¢ | $7.21 | $7.48 | +$0.27 | 37% 3161-5372 (8533) |
Invested
$74.63
Value
$74.21
PnL
-$0.41
Record
27%
928-2514 (3442)
Invested
$39.36
Value
$39.8
PnL
+$0.44
Record
53%
5614-5046 (10660)
balthazar<$100Invested
$39.8
Value
$39.58
PnL
-$0.22
Record
51%
4609-4510 (9119)
Invested
$26.26
Value
$26.11
PnL
-$0.15
Record
40%
1447-2158 (3605)
Invested
$19.28
Value
$19.9
PnL
+$0.62
Record
31%
264-600 (864)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$7.21
Value
$7.48
PnL
+$0.27
Record
37%
3161-5372 (8533)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.