Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 11°C on November 12?

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $305 held · ends Nov 12

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$305.16

Combined PnL

-$0.22

Smart Money Entry

99.8¢ → 100¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 8 top traders (100%)7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$305.16

Total Shares306

Combined PnL-$0.22

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI mildwindow27	Noavg 99.9¢	$101.28	$101.29	+$0.01	29% 887-2138 (3025)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$68.84	$68.56	-$0.28	39% 3388-5407 (8795)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$40.57	$40.39	-$0.18	43% 791-1038 (1829)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$39.8	$39.96	+$0.16	53% 5845-5202 (11047)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$27.17	$27.09	-$0.08	46% 49-58 (107)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$13.95	$13.97	+$0.01	51% 464-451 (915)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$10.28	$10.41	+$0.13	55% 699-561 (1260)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$3.5	$3.5	+$0	99% 383-3 (386)

mildwindow27

Invested

$101.28

Value

$101.29

PnL

+$0.01

Record

29%

887-2138 (3025)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$68.84

Value

$68.56

PnL

-$0.28

Record

39%

3388-5407 (8795)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$40.57

Value

$40.39

PnL

-$0.18

Record

43%

791-1038 (1829)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$39.8

Value

$39.96

PnL

+$0.16

Record

53%

5845-5202 (11047)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$27.17

Value

$27.09

PnL

-$0.08

Record

46%

49-58 (107)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$13.95

Value

$13.97

PnL

+$0.01

Record

51%

464-451 (915)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$10.28

Value

$10.41

PnL

+$0.13

Record

55%

699-561 (1260)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$3.5

Value

$3.5

PnL

+$0

Record

99%

383-3 (386)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 8 top traders (100%)7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.