Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 10°C on November 12?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (88%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $80 held · ends Nov 12

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 88%

Total Value

$80.23

Combined PnL

-$50.47

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$79.96

Total Shares80

Combined PnL+$0.04

Yes7 traders

Total Value$0.27

Total Shares542

Combined PnL-$50.51

No — 13%Yes — 87%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$79.92	$79.96	+$0.04	99% 649-8 (657)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$26.06	$0.14	-$25.91	58% 1038-742 (1780)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$7.23	$0.04	-$7.19	47% 4818-5478 (10296)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.76	$0.03	-$5.73	63% 2135-1236 (3371)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$13.26	$0.03	-$6.23	37% 3458-5944 (9402)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$11.87	$0.02	-$3.55	19% 816-3584 (4400)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.45	$0.01	-$1.45	34% 523-997 (1520)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.45	$0	-$0.45	39% 1399-2233 (3632)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$79.92

Value

$79.96

PnL

+$0.04

Record

99%

649-8 (657)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.06

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$25.91

Record

58%

1038-742 (1780)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.23

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$7.19

Record

47%

4818-5478 (10296)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.76

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$5.73

Record

63%

2135-1236 (3371)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.26

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$6.23

Record

37%

3458-5944 (9402)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.87

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$3.55

Record

19%

816-3584 (4400)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.45

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.45

Record

34%

523-997 (1520)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.45

Value

PnL

-$0.45

Record

39%

1399-2233 (3632)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.